The Super Bowl is finally here!
It’s the most bet on event of the year, but most people are taking the wrong plays.
The 10 picks below are backed by data that actually matters. Here’s what I’m playing before kickoff (and you should too):
10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - More Than 6.5 Catches
He’s cleared this in 68% of his games this season.
Now he plays the Patriots who play man coverage at a Top-10 rate, and Smith-Njigba ranks #1 in the NFL against man. He averages over 8 catches in similar matchups.
9. Hunter Henry - More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
He’s been New England’s most reliable red-zone option all year.
His 22 red-zone targets lead the Patriots and rank 5th in the entire NFL, and now he faces a Seahawks defense allowing the 5th most catches to tight ends.
8. Sam Darnold - More Than 0.5 Interceptions
He’s been the most efficient QB this postseason.
But his Super Bowl matchup is going to be tough. New England has generated the 2nd most pressure in the playoffs & opposing QBs rank dead last in efficiency against them.
If the Patriots keep bringing pressure it could create rushed throws and mistakes from Darnold…
7. Drake Maye - More Than 19.5 Completions
Game script matters here.
The Patriots are 4-point underdogs. In 6 games as an underdog this season, Maye threw 17% more passes and averaged 21.7 completions per game…
6. Rhamondre Stevenson - More Than 74.5 Total Yards
Stevenson just played a whopping 94% of snaps in the AFC Championship.
Since Week 13, he’s averaged 92 total yards per game and has been very active as a receiver out of the backfield.
This matters because Seattle also allows the most catches to running backs…
5. Kyle Williams - Less Than 0.5 Catches
Williams is the 6th option at best in this passing attack.
And when Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte are healthy, he averages just 0.3 catches per game. Both will be active for the Super Bowl…
4. George Holani - More Than 0.5 Catches
With Zach Charbonnet out, Holani stepped into a real passing-down role in the NFC Championship.
He ran 17 RB routes, more than Kenneth Walker, and caught 3 passes for 27 yards. Expect similar passing game usage in the Super Bowl…
3. Stefon Diggs - More Than 3.5 Catches
Seattle plays zone coverage at a Top-5 rate.
Diggs ranks 11th among qualified WRs against zone and averages nearly 5 catches per game in similar matchups.
2. Demario Douglas - Less Than 1 Catch
Douglas needs 2 receptions for this to lose.
This matters because with Mack Hollins back last game, Douglas ran just 9 routes and finished with 0 catches. He remains a low-priority option in a tough matchup…
1. Drake Maye - More Than 0.5 Passing Yards
If Maye throws for just 1 yard, this cashes.
This is a limited-time offer on Prize Picks and it pairs perfectly with the other Super Bowl plays above.
Make sure you take this while you still can.
— Sal
P.S. I took these 10 picks on Prize Picks and you can too.
You’ll get a free $50 AND the free Drake Maye play when you join Prize Picks today with code SAL5 by clicking here now.
