Hey!
Where you draft this year matters more than most people realize.
I put every draft slot into 5 tiers, from the picks you want to land to the ones you're praying to avoid.
Here's the breakdown:
Tier 1
Pick 1: You start with Gibbs, then you're looking at a combo of AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Jeremiyah Love, Derrick Henry, or George Pickens at your 2-3 turn. Followed by Jaylen Waddle, Jayden Daniels, Tyler Warren, Terry McLaurin, or Bhayshul Tuten at your 4-5 turn. That’s a strong roster.
Pick 2: You land Bijan and have a near identical run out to Pick 1 at the 2-3 + 4-5 turns.
Pick 3: You still have a shot at Gibbs or Bijan here, and if not, the best WR in fantasy in Puka Nacua falls to you. He’s attached to the reigning MVP with no new target competition. You come back around with names like Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Malik Nabers, and possibly Drake London still on the board.
Pick 4: The easiest decision on the board. There's a clear tier of 4 blue-chip guys this year: Bijan, Gibbs, Puka, and Chase. Just take whichever is left. Then your 2nd rounder gives you a real shot at Kenneth Walker, AJ Brown, Malik Nabers or Drake London.
Tier 2
Pick 12: Not my favorite, but I don't mind it this year. You get back-to-back picks with a combo of Saquon, Jefferson, Achane, and Lamb. Starting a draft with 2 of those guys feels like cheating. You come back at the 3-4 turn with Ladd McConkey, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Lamar Jackson and Garrett Wilson still available.
Pick 5: Bittersweet. You likely miss out on the 4 Tier 1 players, but worst case you're landing CMC, JSN, or Amon-Ra. The nice thing is you get your pick of the 2nd rounders before Picks 1-4 come back around. A CMC/Kenneth Walker start is still very strong…
Tier 3
Pick 11: Not as strong as Pick 12 because you lose the back-to-back at the turn, meaning you're more likely to miss a guy you want. It’s a similar overall runout though. Common builds are Saquon/Jefferson, Lamb/Saquon, or Lamb/Achane.
Pick 10: Same idea as Pick 11 but worse. There's little difference in the caliber of players from Pick 9 to Pick 18 this year, so at Pick 10 you're getting a weaker 1st round pick and getting a weaker 2nd rounder than Picks 11 and 12. Builds like Lamb/Hampton or Jefferson/Hampton are fine, but don’t feel great…
Tier 4
Pick 6: This was my favorite pick last year but not this year. You're hoping CMC falls to you, otherwise you're choosing between JSN, JT, or Amon-Ra. The one benefit here is you still get to decide elite RB vs WR, while some later draft slots don’t have this same luxury. You come back around with a shot at Kenneth Walker, but there's a real world where he's gone and you're stuck between Derrick Henry, a TE, or Omarion Hampton.
Pick 8: One of the worst picks this year. You get the last of the clear Top 8 players, but miss the strong early Round 2 tier of Jefferson, Achane, Brown, Saquon & London. You end up with an average 1st and an average 2nd. Average doesn't win fantasy leagues…
Tier 5
Pick 7: Not the worst spot, but very close. Last year Pick 7 would've landed you CMC. This year you miss the elite tier AND miss the strong turn picks at 12/11/10. Your Round 1 pick is fine (JT or Amon-Ra) but Round 2 could be a dead zone of McBride, Bowers, Henry or Josh Allen. A JT/McBride start feels thin next to Jefferson/Saquon at Pick 12.
Pick 9: The absolute worst pick to have this year. There's a real drop-off after the Top 8, so at Pick 9 you're choosing between James Cook, Ashton Jeanty or CeeDee Lamb, then you also miss the great turn picks at Picks 10, 11, and 12. A Cook/Hampton or Cook/Brown start just doesn't feel great…
— Sal
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