Hey!
5 of the most popular picks in fantasy drafts right now are the wrong call, the players going behind them are the ones you actually want.
You're drafting the wrong players, so take these 5 instead:
#5 Puka Nacua > Ja'Marr Chase
Puka just finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game at 19.4 with 129 catches (1st), 1715 yards (2nd), and a 36.6% target rate (1st in the NFL).
Even with Davante Adams back in the playoffs, the offense still ran through Puka: 14 targets per game across 3 playoff games.
Both receivers are elite, but take Puka here…
#4 Kenneth Walker > De'Von Achane
Walker just signed a 3-year, $45M deal with the Chiefs. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are both gone. Walker’s competition is a 5th-round rookie and Emari Demercado.
Meanwhile, Achane just lost Mike McDaniel and Malik Willis doesn't check down to running backs and will probably steal redzone work from Achane.
Walker goes after Achane in drafts, despite the much better situation…
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#3 D.J. Moore > Emeka Egbuka
Moore is 2 years removed from a WR10 finish with Justin Fields throwing him the football (1364 yards, 9 TDs).
Buffalo just paid him $49M to play the Stefon Diggs role, and Diggs had 4 straight seasons of 155+ targets with Josh Allen as a Bill.
Egbuka has a worse QB plus has to battle Chris Godwin for targets. DJ Moore has no serious downfield target competition.
Take Moore, the guy in the better offense with less competition…
#2 Cam Skattebo > Bucky Irving
In 6 games as the lead back as a rookie, Cam averaged 17.4 points per game. The Giants didn't add an RB this offseason, Tyrone Tracy is the main competition once again.
Jim Harbaugh is the new HC. Derrick Henry under Harbaugh: RB3 in 2024, RB7 in 2025.
Bucky is going on his 3rd OC in 3 years and Tampa signed Kenneth Gainwell to eat into Bucky’s receiving role. Take Skattebo at a cheaper price point…
#1 Trevor Lawrence > Justin Herbert
Lawrence just had his best pro season, 20.6 points per game (QB6), 29 passing TDs, plus 9 rushing TDs (2nd among QBs).
From Week 12 on he hit 26.3 points per game and the Jags averaged 33.4 points.
Meanwhile, Herbert lost Keenan Allen and the offense could be more run-heavy under new OC Mike McDaniel. Plus Lawrence gets a far easier schedule on paper…
— Sal
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